Phoenix Forecast: Rain Arrives This Weekend, Colder Next Week
After a month-long dry spell, metro Phoenix is preparing for a significant shift in its weather pattern. Forecasters anticipate rain starting this weekend, with a notable cooldown accompanying the precipitation. This initial system will pave the way for even colder temperatures and more wet weather early next week, bringing a true taste of late fall to the Valley.
A Wet Weekend Ahead for Metro Phoenix
While Friday is set to offer a “fairly nice day,” as described by Chris Kuhlman of the National Weather Service (NWS) in Phoenix to KTAR News 92.3 FM, the weekend forecast shifts considerably. The earliest chance for showers will be Saturday afternoon, though these are expected to be isolated. The most significant rainfall is anticipated to commence later Saturday night and persist through Sunday morning across the Valley, marking the end of a notable dry spell for the region.
Residents can expect rainfall totals generally ranging from half an inch to a full inch. Kuhlman emphasized that these amounts are not expected to trigger widespread flooding concerns. Furthermore, this system is not projected to bring severe weather elements. “We’re not looking for any storms that are going to cause any winds or anything like that,” Kuhlman stated. Instead, residents should anticipate a “fairly quiet weather event with just rain showers, maybe a few rumbles of thunder,” making for a gentle transition into a wetter pattern.
Significant Temperature Drop This Weekend
In addition to the rain, Phoenix will experience a noticeable drop in temperatures. While Friday is set to maintain comfortable highs in the mid-80s, Saturday will see a slight reduction. The most pronounced cooldown will occur between Saturday and Sunday, with Sunday’s daytime highs expected to hover around 70 degrees. This shift represents a refreshing departure from the prolonged period of unseasonably warm weather that has characterized recent weeks in the desert.
Northern Arizona’s Forecast: Rain and High-Elevation Snow
Beyond the Valley, northern Arizona is also included in this widespread weather system. The high country is expected to receive rain over the weekend. However, initial snow forecasts are limited to only the highest elevation mountain ranges. As the region progresses into early next week and temperatures continue their downward trend, the likelihood of snow will increase for lower elevations, including communities such as Flagstaff, aligning more with typical late-fall conditions for these areas.
Breaking a Month-Long Dry Streak
The impending rainfall is particularly significant for Phoenix, as it will break a full month-long dry spell. The last time Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, the official reporting station for the city’s weather readings, recorded measurable precipitation was on October 13. That event capped a five-day rain period that contributed to localized flooding and damage across parts of the Valley. This weekend’s system offers a contrast, expected to be less intense but equally impactful in ending the dry conditions.
Outlook for Next Week: Another Storm and Colder Air
The atmospheric activity is not a one-and-done event. Following the weekend system, forecasters are tracking another storm set to bring the coldest temperatures Phoenix has seen all year. Chris Kuhlman outlined the sequence: “We have the first weather system (that) will mostly move out later Sunday, (followed by) maybe a dry period for 18, 24 hours, and then we have another weather system coming in as early as Monday night.” This indicates a brief respite before the next wave arrives.
More Rain and the Year’s Coldest Highs
The best opportunity for more rain from this subsequent weather system is anticipated for Tuesday and extending into Wednesday. The nature of the storm activity is expected to parallel that of the weekend – predominantly rain showers without the threat of high winds or severe weather, though “maybe a few rumbles of thunder” could still occur. The primary impact, however, will be on temperatures. Kuhlman noted, “And probably we’ll get colder, maybe the coldest might be during the middle part of next week, where we might only see highs around 65 degrees.”
Experiencing a daily high temperature in the mid-60s would be a notable occurrence for Phoenix, as the city has not recorded such cool highs since April 2. This projected temperature range is approximately 10 degrees below the normal average for the third week of November, marking a definitive shift into a much cooler, late-fall environment for residents.
Comparing the Upcoming Weather Systems
| Period | Rain Timing | Expected Amount | High Temperatures |
|---|---|---|---|
| This Weekend | Sat night – Sun morning | 0.5 – 1 inch | Around 70°F (Sunday) |
| Early Next Week | Mon night – Wed | Similar to weekend | Around 65°F |
Frequently Asked Questions
- When does the rain start in Phoenix this weekend?
Expect isolated showers possibly Saturday afternoon, with the best chance for widespread rain later Saturday night and Sunday morning. - How much rainfall is expected?
Forecasters predict about half an inch to an inch of rain from the first system, generally not enough to cause flooding. The next system will bring similar amounts. - Will the storms be severe?
No, these are expected to be quiet weather events with mostly rain showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder, but no strong winds. - How much will temperatures drop?
Highs will cool to around 70 degrees on Sunday, and further into the mid-60s by the middle of next week, which is about 10 degrees below normal for November. - What’s the outlook for next week?
After a brief dry spell of 18-24 hours, another storm system is anticipated Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more rain and the coldest temperatures of the year to date.
Prepare for a refreshing change in Phoenix weather over the coming days by planning indoor activities for the wet periods and dressing in layers for significantly cooler temperatures.
Phoenix forecast rain this weekend colder next week
